Friday, March 22, 2013

Final Three

Last series of the season and there is still meaning.

NL

Vancouver has the #1 seed.

Buffalo needs a win over Scranton to take the division and the #2 seed. Talk about an exciting finish.

Louisville has the #3 seed.

New Orleans has the #4 seed.

Scranton has the #5 seed but could switch places with Buffalo in a sweep.

Albuquerque and Colorado Springs get to fight it out for the #6 seed. Oh, so much fun.

Charleston is not out of the picture yet, a sweep of Louisville and a 2-1 split either way between Albuquerque and Colorado Springs means they can claim the #6 seed. 

AL

Tacoma needs a win against Boise to secure the #1 seed

Montgomery needs two wins over El Paso or two losses by Sioux Falls to claim the #2 seed. I have only beaten one team in the division all season and it isn't the Biscuits, figure that one out.

Sioux Falls can do no worse than the #3 seed.

New Britain needs a win over Rochester to put the division and #4 seed to bed otherwise Rochester will be doing the show.

Omaha has gone on a 7 game losing skid and the #5 seed could be in jeopardy but a playoff spot is in the bag at least.


Richmond needs a win against Jacksonville to claim the #6 seed.


Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Playoff Races

With 12 games to go there are some playoff spots still up for grabs.


NL

1.  Vancouver grabbed the division crown in the West long ago and has secured the the #1 seed.
2.  Buffalo has kept Scranton at arms length much of the season in the North but 5 games is not in their comfort zone with a 3 game series yet to play at seasons end.
3.  Louisville claims the East crown and the #3 seed barring a total meltdown.
4.  New Orleans is rather comfortable with a 7 game lead and a rather easy schedule after upending the Generals in a sweep and control of the South. The problem is those should win games can become mindboggling frustrating.
5.  Scranton winds up the #5 seed if they can't overtake Buffalo.
6.  Albuquerque is lightly penciled in as the #6 seed as Charleston, Colorado and Jackson are all with in 3. Albuquerque still has Vancouver and Colorado Springs on their schedule, not helpful for the faint of heart.  Colorado Springs isn't much better with Scranton, Buffalo and the aforementioned Isotopes, egads! Open door for Charleston maybe, doubtful with Scranton and Louisville on the schedule. Jackson compared to the rest has a schedule that could easily put them into the playoffs.

AL

1.  Today it is Tacoma that holds down the #1 seed. Montgomery may claim the spot tomorrow. Yet again, Sioux Falls could scratch their way to the top before it is over. 
2.  Montgomery at the moment as the projected South champs.
3.  Sioux Falls has the North division crown and still fighting like a mad hen to garner a top seed.
4.  New Britain has a tenuous 3 game lead in the East over Rochester. 
5.  Omaha has a 6 game lead for the 5th spot but are only 5 behind Tacoma and yes, they still play each other. 
6.  Rochester and Richmond are both tied for the 6th spot. Rochester still has Tacoma and New Britain on their schedule so that doesn't ease the faithful nerves but have been playing rather well of late. Richmond has a much easier schedule but have found the going very tough lately. 

Hoping for a collapse by both of those teams is Jacksonville who has been trying to take matters into their own hands but hasn't been successful.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

International Report

With the season getting close to the end, a recap of the highest paid Internationals to date.

Iowa City went whole hog on Jolbert Encarnacion with a $24M bonus. A price well paid it would seem for a possible #1 starting pitcher. Could development issues cloud the future to a slow rise.

Grade: A+

Louie Morales was favored by Pawtucket with a $19M carrot. Another high price for a possible #1 starting pitcher. He has the goods in my estimation even though he is three pitcher wunderkind.

Grade: A+

Luis Garza shot onto the scene with an $18.6M signing bonus paid by Rochester. A quick trip to the DL didn't slow development. My scouts show he has lefty tendencies although he is right-handed which makes him kind of a freak. His durability comes into question that might limit depth in games. Another supreme 3 pitch monster however.

Grade: A+

Francisco Chavez was awarded $18.2M by New Britain. Shame he will come up short of a true defensive SS and durability will limit the number of starts during a season. Has some power and speed and a good hitter besides and rarely strikes out. Overall would make a 5 tool 3B.

Grade: A

Fargo gave Hector Jose an $18M bonus. Rated as gangly by most scouts as he has trouble using his glove and an erratic arm. Oddly it doesn't affect his great hitting prowess which has some pop.Not much of a threat stealing bases however.

Grade: A-

Portland dropped $15.3M on Al Bolivar. He will suffer from the dropsies in RF with an illiterate glove but does have a good arm. Hits well with power to the opposite field and speed to steal bases. His biggest drawback is durability which will get him a 100 or fewer starts and will need a suave manager . We feel he was way overpriced.

Grade: B+

Tony Leon announced his $13.8M proclamation by Toledo. Though we are not sure he is of sound mind and body, we do know he can become one hell of power hitting DH. 1B on the other hand will be an adventure better left unsaid as Toledo management thinks his hitting will be enough to make up for it.

Grade: B+

Everth Vazquez was awarded $13.5M by Tucson. My scouts say he was overpriced by a few million at least because at best he is an end of rotation starter. A bit low on stamina and durability will make depth in a game arduous.  Though the great control and good pitches are available his splits are a bit anemic.

Grade: B+

John Chang picked up a $12.1M bonus check from Portland. Chosen originally to play CF but there is some doubt about that as he plays a better 2B and is absolutely horrendous at 3B. A for average hitter with little power has shown problems in consistency that may plague him throughout his career. Does have enough speed to be regular base stealer however. We think he came in overpriced also.

Grade: B

Carlos Quixote garnered $12M out of Tucson. Scouts say there may be some questions about his actual age. Not often do you come across an almost ready ML player in the market.  The DL of course found a way to hinder development. Normally I would say that kind of cash was too much for a shutdown closer but is different in this instance.

Grade: A

Magglio Estalella got a $11M paycheck from Memphis. A lefty starting pitcher that has bust written all over him I am sorry to say. Control might be good, splits is a maybe but lack of pitches drives it down further.

Grade: C

Eli Cruz blew into a $8.4M payday with Syracuse. What I have seen in this world about SS, I am surprised he didn't get a bigger payday. He may be far from a GG SS but I think he has talent for the position.  Not that fleet of foot or really great with a bat but puts the ball in play.

Grade: B

Jhoulys Leon makes the list at $4.5M because I like how he spells his name and Columbus fans love him. I think he was way undervalued at $4.5M. He may not hit well but can play SS and or CF with the best of them.

Grade: B



Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Rebuild

When I joined the league I knew the team was going to be a rebuild project. I looked at all the available teams and they all looked relatively alike. I figured this one had the best chance at rebuilding quicker because of the aging vets that could get extra picks in the draft. I think I had a pretty good draft for that matter.

Once you find a game you love it is hard to give it up. Matter of fact, you get carried away with it and the next thing you know, you have three or four teams or more. It is fine if you have nothing else better to do, most don't have that luxury however. Believe it or not, most days you need to spend an hour a day with a team on the average. In a rebuild you don't have to spend that much time in all reality. Why? Because you don't have to look at other teams rosters looking for a player that can help put your team over the top or delve into stats to figure out if a change is in order. Trust me, it can be exhausting among other things in the end. Real world problems tend to have an effect also, most times at the worst possible moment, I have had my lions share the last couple years.

I also like to write about it. Never figured that one out, as a kid I deplored writing anything. Maybe with computers it is so much easier than with pen and paper. Don't have to worry all that much about several things, like spelling, grammar, etc. The best part is I always have a good topic of discussion at hand..lol.

Anyway, back to the original line of thought after that drivel. I had the 10th pick of the draft and needed to find a player that could be the cornerstone of my rebuild. Chances of getting a #1 starting pitcher is pretty remote as the best ones have already been taken off the board by then. Middle relievers are a good choice in this spot, you know the ones that have great pitching stats but just don't have the stamina or durability to handle a starting pitching role except in emergency situations. A shutdown closer is not a bad idea either though it is really hard to take one this early normally.  With the 10th pick you usually get a shot at one of the best four position players on your board.

I am not sure how everyone views position players when ranking but this is how I do it. I imagine most may do it the same way one way or another.  I usually look at the top 100 by position to create a pool, selecting the best hitter(s) then the best fielder(s) at that position. I do it that way because a player may be listed as a SS but can't play the position, but can hit like a champ.  I am a bit of stickler for defense so I am not going to have a sub par fielder anywhere if I can help it. Believe it or not, most generally this only nets about 15 players in the pool. Once I have the pool then I rank them by judgement normally, like, how well does he hit and what position(s) he can or will be able play. I look for key positions first (SS, CF, 2B, C).

After all that it came down to 3 position players, Marshall Barker, Neil Sinclair and Denard Booker. If you look at the draft history you will find out they were selected, 9th, 10th, and 11th. I had Barker ranked higher because of his power and being left-handed was a plus, he was listed as a RF but because of his glove couldn't be anything better than a 1B in my books. Sinclair would be a good choice but the best place he could play was 3B not SS which isn't all bad. I had some problems with Booker though as he would be best at LF.  Barker is who I ended up with and I had him ranked second though I wasn't guaranteed he would be there either.

I do pitching last because it is easier to get them back into the fold. I had Wil Ray ranked in the #1 spot because he was the best starter on my board but knew he would never make it to the 10th spot. I had Paul King ranked 3rd, the reason was his 3rd pitch but his overall told me he wasn't likely to be there at 10 either.

Max Rondon was in the 4th slot because I liked what he had to offer out of the pen, I really don't expect him to be a starter. he was actually selected about where I thought he would.  I was surprised to get York Carew with the 29th pick and had him in the 5th slot. I think he could be a good 5th starter or work well out of the pen. Harley Bixler and Alex Jarvis were a steal also. Arthur Hansen with the 30th pick may not seem all that great but it isn't easy finding a potential GG CF/2B and maybe a little 3B thrown in.

Knowing I had lots of money coming out of the budget for the draft, had to be careful about going after the Internationals. Rafael Vazquez  while maybe not super great was for the right amount of money at $7.5M. Another end of rotation starter or pen help. Renyel Hernandez was a bargain at $2.4M. No superstar for sure but definitely has value.

Just about everyone overlooked Tsuyoshi Shibata.  I wouldn't have spent much more of my budget on him myself as he is nothing more than a career minor league DH maybe. The catch is, he is a good one. Hard to rebuild an organization if you can't get to the playoffs in the minors. Many will disagree with that but it has its perks especially when in rebuild mode.

So that is how the rebuild starts in old El Paso. I think that gives us about 10 total players for the future with the one or two already in the system. It is a start, next season, have to find a few more key players. The hardest part is getting them developed.




Saturday, March 9, 2013

Did You Know

Did you know there are only 40 games left? Well, it is true. So what do we know so far.

AL

North

Sioux Falls are pretty assured of the division crown with an 18 game lead. At the moment they hold the number 1 seed but there will be a fight for it.

East

New Britain and Rochester are fighting for dominance here which could take the rest of the season to finalize.

South

Montgomery and Richmond are having a tussle just like the East.

West

Tacoma has a four game lead over Omaha so things are far from settled here.


At this time only Rochester and Jacksonville are chasing the two Wild Card spots. Both will need to step up their game to overcome a 7 game deficit. 


NL

North

Buffalo and Scranton are fighting over the North with 2 games separating them.

East

Louisville has a comfortable 17 game lead.

South

New Orleans did Mardi Gras right as they have garnered an 11 game lead.

West

Vancouver is up by 26 and should easily claim the division crown and #1 seed.


Five teams are fighting over the final Wild Card spot. Colorado Springs leads the way at the moment with Albuquerque hot on their cloud. Las Vegas, Charleston and Jackson are all within striking distance.

Friday, March 8, 2013

Season 22 Draft

1. Dorian Goodwin became the number 1 pick of the Draft. Columbus hopes they can develop him into a 5 tool player in RF. The possibility is there though we think hitting for average might be overridden by his power.

Grade: A+

2. Paul King selected by Syracuse. This pick was a surprise to most as a heralded starting pitcher or power hitter is the norm. However an everyday shutdown closer can be hard to come.Development may take some time but it will pay off in the end.

Grade: A+

3. Aramis Solano selected by Toledo. Has a long way to go to be effective at the ML level and could be a bit of a bust, only time will tell. Health could be a concern along with the lack of pitches that overshadows his ability with control, splits and velo quite a bit.

Grade: B+

4. Wil Ray selected by Norfolk. A small surprise as most pundits had him penciled in as the probable #1 overall pick. All the requirements are available to be a number 1 starting pitcher in a ML rotation one day.

Grade: A+

5. Bobby Lackey selected by Norfolk. The Tides are hoping his skills come along to be that great center fielder every one searches for and rarely finds. There is a lot of promise but he may fall somewhat short of greatness. Has or will have the tools to necessary to be a cut above most. The question could be where to put him in the lineup, has speed but getting on base could be tricky in the top of the lineup.

Grade: A

6.  Alex Rivera selected by Tucson. This pick might turn out to be a total bust in more ways than one. Doesn't have the true ability to play infield and may find him relegated to corner outfield. Does have a decent eye and looks effective against pitchers and has power. His biggest knock is hitting the ball or the lack of it to be more exact.

Grade: B-

7. Louis Hoffman selected by Pawtucket. Playing 2B may be a dream or should I say playing a great 2B.  This is one of the screwball things as he has the power and ability to hit any pitch into the upper deck but can't throw the ball. Depending on development or lack of it might turn into a very solid 1B. Still one cannot deny his awesome hitting ability and will find somewhere to play fo sure.

Grade: A-

8.  Mel Knowles selected by Little Rock. The Govs were hoping for an everyday for average hitting machine. Defensively he might become a rock behind the plate though the handling of pitchers will have to come from the bench. Might be better served as a DH and (only thing left) emergency catcher. Umm...wait a sec, Little Rock is in the NL....They already found out hitting machines break down as he is OFS already.

Grade: A-

9. Neil Sinclair selected by Las Vegas. SS? Okay so he is short at 5-8 but me thinks 3B is the place he should be, so load up and move 60 feet to the right. Not too bad in the hitting department either but has to grow to get there.

Grade: A-

10. Marshall Barker selected by El Paso. His glove looked like a bust in RF so we moved him to 1B without delay. His bat and hitting style is a force we like. He will make a good cornerstone to build around.

Grade: A

11. Denard Booker selected by Jacksonville. Jax figured out quickly that he couldn't even begin to play 2B and moved him to LF. I think he might have enough initiative to play RF also. Decent at the plate with a little bit of pop.

Grade: B+

12. Alexi Cruz selected by Portland. Having signing issues as he may not have passed his physical. Anyway, he wants to be a 2B but could easily become a go to utility as he possesses enough skill to play anywhere. Lets don't forget his very good hitting skills for average.

Grade: A-

13. Willie Sandoval selected by Memphis. Has some unique qualities for a pitcher. Not sure I have seen a lefty off-speed closer before. Then again few lefties get a chance to develop like Willie. Now, keeping him off the DL might be the toughest part for him to have a career.

Grade: B

14. Robb Cormier selected by Iowa City. Took a chance, doesn't look promising.

15. Pepper Dillard selected by Jackson. Could be a very good setup man to closer, wouldn't call him shutdown as he has a somewhat weak second pitch. The DL has his name written on it, oops my bad,  maybe because he is already there.

Grade: B

16. Ernie Rigdon selected by Hartford. Drafted as a SS and has an outside chance of being one though if you ask me, pretty dim chance but there are of course more positions other than SS. Hitting doesn't look all that robust either.

Grade: C+

17. Max Rondon selected by Fargo. Sure he is a lefty and most avoid them like the plague in this game for good reason. He has some rather great abilities and the best part is development shouldn't be too difficult. He doesn't have the durability of a starter but should be a stalwart working out of the pen. I wouldn't hesitate using him as a closer even.

Grade: A-

18. Yannick Schmidt selected by New Britain. Not much use as a catcher at all. Could make a nice DH for average however if he develops well.

Grade: B

19. Malachi Levrault selected by Jacksonville. Could turn into a good defensive SS at the ML level. Hitting for average against right-handed pitchers is a plus and has great speed. Three and half tools this late in the draft for a position player is pretty good.

Grade: A-

20. Brian Moreno selected by Louisville. This is normally where the first or second closer is taken, an odd draft with so many being taken already. Still there were plenty to go around and Brian can be just as good though he lacks the super control of his predecessors.

Grade: B++

21. Ronald Miller selected by Boise. What a behemoth at the plate he can be! The downside is his lack of durability but not that worrisome as he could only be a DH. Not a bad cornerstone for a rebuilding team.

Grade: B+

22. Fred Masset selected by New Orleans. Just like the previous pick a DH disguised as a catcher though I am not sure what a NL team would want with him. The best player left on the board is rather doubtful, possible future trade is a maybe. A very good for average hitter with a little pop.

Grade: B

23. Milton Fischer selected by Omaha. His Range falls into question as his glove and arm look great for 3B as time will tell but definitely not for SS. Loves to hit lefties but overall hitting    has some pop but just isn't going to net him any trophies. The great thing is the fact he is an everyday player.

Grade: B

24. Earle Sheets selected by Memphis. RF looks a little too exhausting for him, might be a touch overzealous for 1B but that is where I would put him. Could develop into a good for average hitter with a little pop added.

Grade: B-

25. Corban Burkett selected by Colorado Springs. Health might be an issue. One of those players that may turn out to be a bit maudlin. Can play at COF but nothing great. Can hit with a bit of power and prefers southpaws over righties quite a bit.

Grade: B-

26. William Hunter selected by Colorado Springs. Trouble in the signing department but on whose accord? Definitely a project player that may not pan out.

Grade: C+

27. Brandon Nichting selected by Boise. Starting pitching was not really very accommodating in this draft but Brandon could be considered a number 3 or 4 starter in a ML rotation. Decent control, splits and a couple good pitches highlight this off-speed fly ball type. That fourth pitch if it doesn't get dropped could be parked quite often. 

Grade: B-

28. Pascual Rijo selected by Colorado Springs. SS is a doubtful lifetime position as his glove just doesn't get the job done and the arm just may end up as mediocre. 3B is more likely but lack of hitting style just doesn't turn anyones crank that much.

Grade: C

29. York Carew selected by El Paso. Control could be a bit on the low side of being good but the splits are good and at least a pitch or two to keep hitters on their toes. Still could be a good end of rotation starter at the ML level.  Can't expect to find an ace this late in the first round.

Grade: B-

30. Arthur Hansen selected by El Paso. Fancies himself as a 2B but we like him in CF much better. Could be a GG standout at either position.  Hitting is not his strong suit but won't be absolutely terrible. 

Grade: C+

31. Vic Terrero selected by Albuquerque. CF is a long shot best kept a secret. COF is more along his lines to be sure. A bit of a health risk but who knows. Has good speed to go along with his good for average hitting, just don't expect very many long balls.

Grade: B-

32.  Max Perez selected by Tacoma. Has the tools to be a sometimes closer as he doesn't have very good stamina or durability. Has shown he can get out of an inning quickly without being to damaged which is a plus. 

Grade: C+

33. Sergio Wolcott selected by Columbus. Left-handed with a poor right split and off-speed also. Great control, good repitoire of pitches is very helpful with a ground ball attitude. Wait and see is all we can do but I don't consider him a bad pick this late..

Grade: B- 

34. Mickey Washington selected by Columbus. 2B looks doubtful as LF/1B looks to be his strong suit. A little speed doesn't assist his below average hitting style either. Chances aren't good he will make a ML roster.

Grade: C

35. Bert Hentgen selected by Albuquerque.  2B doesn't look so hot but an outside chance at 3B, might be better suited in RF. Has some speed but less than average hitter with a little pop.

Grade: C

36. John Allen selected by Vancouver. Overlooked by many teams is this three pitch closer. Good control, splits, velo and pitches, what more can you ask for. Okay,  better durability answers that question.

Grade: B